AGP Executive Report

Economy & Investment: Kazakhstan’s fixed capital investment rose 7.7% in the first seven months, with the biggest jumps in Ulytau (+94.4%), Zhambyl (+56.4%) and Turkistan (+37.5%), while declines hit Zhetysu (-24.5%) and Shymkent (-14%). Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Slovenia reaffirmed plans for closer partnership, including stronger inter-parliamentary dialogue and trade ties. Weather Watch: Scattered rain, thunderstorms, strong winds and possible hail are expected, with the south staying mostly dry and hot; temperatures may swing sharply across regions. Back to School: Over 380,000 children are set to start the new academic year, with first-graders enrollment continuing through Aug. 31 via eGov.kz and schools. Nuclear Sector: Kazakhstan signed a memorandum to boost industrial cooperation and localization in the nuclear industry, linking government, business and industry groups. Energy Exports: Kazakhstan-linked CPC crude exports face new Black Sea risks after a Greek-managed tanker was attacked following loading near Novorossiysk. Politics: Kazakhstan’s Kurultai election is set for Aug. 23, with OSCE observers expected to monitor the process. Sports (Local Interest): Kazakhstan’s Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunić advanced in Cincinnati doubles, while Kazakhstan’s badminton player Dmitriy Panarin faced a tough opening match at the World Championships.

Central Asia Power Dispute: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan still disagree on what sparked the Aug. 14 blackout, with KEGOC pointing to Toktogul hydrogenerator disconnections while Kyrgyz grid operators cite a different high-voltage line event. Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGaz and a Croatian venture are setting up a joint venture to explore the Shygys hydrocarbon block in Aktobe region, using reinterpreted 2D seismic data and planning new seismic lines plus an exploration well. Politics: Kazakhstan is preparing for its first Kurultai elections on Aug. 23, replacing the old bicameral parliament with a 145-deputy unicameral system under the 2026 constitution. Weather Watch: Rain, thunderstorms, and dust storms are expected across Kazakhstan, with hot conditions in Almaty/Zhetysu up to +36°C. Culture & Sports: Burabay’s short film festival awarded a French animated film and a British screenplay, while Kazakhstan’s Viktor Druzin won bronze at the junior artistic swimming worlds. Global Tech Pressure: The US plans to tell countries, including Kazakhstan, to pick sides in the AI race with China or face exclusion from a US-led coalition.

US–China AI Pressure: The US plans to tell dozens of countries they must choose sides in the AI race, warning that joining China’s competing framework could mean exclusion from a US-led AI coalition; Kazakhstan is named as a key minerals supplier that has also aligned with China’s track. Central Asia Energy Shock: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy says recent power outages across the region were triggered by failures in the unified Central Asian energy system, with Toktogul HPP cited in explanations. Ukraine Drone War Hits Russia Logistics: Ukraine launched a major drone assault, with Russia reporting 800+ drones shot down and fires at Wildberries warehouses in the Moscow region; Wildberries says it will expand warehousing in Kazakhstan. Archaeology & Heritage: Turkic-world researchers agreed to build a unified digital database of archaeological heritage, with Kazakhstan among participating countries. Health & Trade Links: Lilavati Hospital plans an international expansion into Kazakhstan via a super-speciality outpatient department, aiming to bring specialist care closer to Central Asia. Sports: Kazakhstan’s Yasmina Islamova and Aldiyar Ramazanov won silver at the World Aquatics Junior Artistic Swimming Championships in Budapest.

Golden Horde Scholarship: Historians from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tatarstan discussed how Golden Horde heritage is reshaping modern identities and Kazakh clan links. Archaeology in Kazakhstan: New digs across Zhambyl, Turkistan and Pavlodar found 11th–12th century mud-brick structures, a mosque, paved streets and artifacts, including a well-preserved Kimak-Kipchak mobile dwelling. AI Geopolitics: The US plans to pressure dozens of countries to choose between Washington’s Pax Silica and China’s AI framework, with Kazakhstan named among those in the mix. Central Asia Power Shock: A major blackout hit Almaty and other Central Asian cities; Kazakhstan’s energy ministry blamed a sudden change in electricity flow from the regional grid. Cash Ruble Fees: Banks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus raised fees for depositing cash Russian rubles, in some cases up to 10–20%. Sports (Almaty angle): Kazakhstan’s Yasmina Islamova and Aldiyar Ramazanov won silver in junior artistic swimming at the World Aquatics Championships. Medical Tourism: Lilavati Hospital plans its first overseas centre in Kazakhstan to expand oncology and other specialist care for international patients.

Power Crisis in Central Asia: A major blackout hit Kazakhstan and neighboring countries at once, with outages reported in Almaty and other regions, and in Bishkek and parts of Tajikistan/Uzbekistan; Kazakhstan’s grid operator KEGOC blamed a sudden shutdown of two hydro generators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul HPP, causing a surge, overload, and separation of the southern zone, before power was restored. US–China AI Pressure: The US plans to warn about 35 countries that joining China’s AI initiative could mean exclusion from the US-led Pax Silica supply-chain bloc, putting Kazakhstan among the nations named. Kazakhstan–Serbia Ties: Kazakhstan’s deputy foreign minister met Serbian officials in Belgrade to push deeper cooperation in nuclear energy, agriculture, education, space, digital tech and AI. Medical Tourism Push: Lilavati Hospital says it will open its first overseas Kazakhstan centre in September to offer outpatient consultations and treatment planning, with referrals to its Mumbai hospital for major procedures. Culture on Screen: Filming for the international feature “Molla Nasreddin – Friend of My Hard Days” entered its final stage in Kazakhstan, with scenes planned in Almaty Region, Almaty and Turkistan. Sports: Kazakhstan’s Dastan Satpayev joined Burnley on loan; and Almaty’s Kanye West concert was postponed by one day due to bad weather.

Power Crisis in Central Asia: Kazakhstan’s KEGOC says Friday’s blackout was triggered by an emergency shutdown of two Toktogul HPP hydro generators in Kyrgyzstan, which overloaded the North–South line and separated Kazakhstan’s southern zone; power was later restored, while outages were also reported across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Almaty Concert Delayed: Kanye West’s Almaty show was postponed from Aug. 14 to Aug. 15 due to bad weather after strong winds damaged the stadium’s main set piece; the rescheduled concert starts at 9 p.m. US–China AI Pressure on Kazakhstan: The U.S. plans to warn dozens of countries, including Kazakhstan, to “pick sides” in the AI race—joining China’s AI framework could mean exclusion from a U.S.-led AI coalition. Logistics Push for Almaty Region: A new Kusto Logistics multimodal hub in Almaty Region began operations, targeting up to 100,000 containers a year and boosting cargo links across Kazakhstan. Sports: Iga Swiatek won the Canadian Open title, beating Kazakh Elena Rybakina 6-2, 6-3.

Power Crisis in Almaty and Beyond: A major blackout hit Almaty and parts of Almaty Region on Aug. 14 after three 500 kV lines tripped, triggering emergency protection and cutting supply to about 2,810 MW of consumers; residents also reported outages in Bishkek, Dushanbe and southern Uzbekistan as Central Asia’s interconnected grid shifted to isolated operation. Energy System Linkages: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry and KEGOC said the disruption was linked to a sharp change in power flow from the Central Asian grid, with restoration underway and some restrictions already lifted in Karaganda, Abai and Ulytau. Armenia–Kazakhstan Agriculture Talks: Armenia’s Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan met Kazakh Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov in Almaty to expand trade and investment in water management, irrigation, livestock and processing, with wine, fresh produce and fish flagged for growth. Regional Trade Snapshot: Armenia–Kazakhstan trade rose to $48.5m in H1 2026 (+16.3%), though Armenian exports fell while imports from Kazakhstan surged. Tennis Spotlight: Iga Swiatek won the Canadian Open in Toronto, beating Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina 6-2, 6-3, lifting Swiatek back toward the top five.

Tech & Transport: Kazakhstan approved a three-year pilot for Level 3–4 self-driving vehicles, with trials starting Aug. 21 in Astana, Almaty and Kosshy and testing allowed on selected public roads. Labor Mobility: Kazakhstan was added to South Korea’s E-9 visa sending list, with workers expected to arrive from 2028 for roles mainly in manufacturing, agriculture, construction, hospitality and cleaning. Economy Watch: Kazakhstan’s inflation fell for the 10th straight month, reaching 10.2% in July, as the National Bank cited policy steps and currency stability. Environment Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s environment and climate cooperation with Qatar was discussed in a ministerial meeting focused on shared climate and environmental priorities. Sports (Kazakhstan on the world stage): Elena Rybakina reached the Canadian Open final but was beaten by Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-3 in Toronto, ending Rybakina’s run just before the US Open. Food Security/Trade: Talks in Almaty aimed at easing agro-industrial barriers, including steps tied to Armenian food safety and Russian import rules.

Canadian Open Tennis: Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan) roared back to beat Coco Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 and set up a Toronto final against Iga Swiatek after Swiatek edged Elina Svitolina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3. Black Sea Security & Trade: Ukraine proposed a deal with Russia to halt attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea to reopen a key grain corridor, while Ukraine also hit Russia’s Novorossiysk naval base and grain infrastructure. Caspian Update: Iran has started ratifying the 2018 Caspian Sea legal convention, as the sea’s water level keeps sliding toward a roughly 200-year low. Energy Disruption Near Kazakhstan: A Ukrainian drone strike shut Russia’s Orsk refinery for up to six months, raising fuel-rationing pressure in the region bordering Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan in Sports & Society: Kazakhstan’s weightlifting team added another junior gold in Tashkent, and Kazakhstan’s MFA says Tokayev will attend the G20 summit in Miami as a guest.

Qurultay Campaign Watch: Kazakhstan’s pre-election TV debates on Jibek Joly are in full swing, with the theme “Rule of Law as the Foundation of a Just Society” and a team format where all seven parties answer questions from journalists and viewers via QR codes and WhatsApp; a viewer poll after four rounds put Adilet on top (60.6%), followed by Auyl (15.1%) and Respublica (10.2%). Election Day Logistics: Three polling stations open early at 6:00 am, with possible early closing at some military and medical sites and at Kazakhstan’s diplomatic missions abroad; commissions are distributing over 1 million voter notifications. Kazakhstan in Global Sports: Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan reached the National Bank Open final after beating Coco Gauff, setting up a title match against Iga Swiatek after Swiatek defeated Elina Svitolina. Almaty/Regional Business & Tech: Kazakhstan and China agreed to deepen cooperation in industry, energy, and construction, aiming to shift trade toward higher-value goods and technologies.

Black Sea Energy Shock: Ukraine hit Russia’s Novorossiysk naval base with drones and missiles, damaging port infrastructure and grain terminals, while Russia reported hundreds of drones intercepted and civilian deaths. CPC Kazakhstan Oil Fallout: After a US VP JD Vance request, Ukraine paused strikes on tankers using the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal and agreed to avoid CPC infrastructure and non-Russian vessels, as freight rates for CPC crude surged and shipments were disrupted. Oil Market Update: OPEC+ output rose in July, but the IEA cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast to the lowest level of the year, citing Hormuz closure, Red Sea attacks, and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports. Kazakhstan Data Security: Kazakhstan is reviewing claims that 15 million citizens’ personal data were leaked and sold online, with the eGov ministry saying there’s no confirmed proof. Almaty Transport Plan: Almaty approved plans to bring back trams via a light rail line targeting late-2027 launch. Sports Spotlight: Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan) reached the Toronto semifinals after beating Naomi Osaka, where she’ll face Coco Gauff.

Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Elena Rybakina fought back to beat Naomi Osaka 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 at the National Bank Open in Toronto and will face Coco Gauff in the semifinals after Gauff advanced by walkover when Belinda Bencic withdrew with a hip injury. Energy & trade (CPC impact): Ukraine paused drone strikes on tankers using Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a U.S. request, a move tied to concerns about Kazakhstan-linked crude flows via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Water security: With drought worsening in southern Kazakhstan, authorities are turning to cloud-seeding to boost rainfall for Turkestan’s cotton areas. Digital government & privacy: Kazakhstan is expanding eGov GPT to cover more services and tightening rules on personal data protection, including access transparency and stronger identity checks. Infrastructure: Kazakhstan is modernizing railway stations, with 71 already commissioned, and pushing faster commissioning and quality control. Politics (election campaign): A televised team debate is set for Aug. 12 on Jibek Joly, centered on the rule of law and “law and order.”

Crypto Tax Break: President Tokayev signed a decree exempting individuals from income tax on digital-asset gains for three years, aiming to shift about 1 million crypto wallets from foreign platforms to licensed exchanges, while excluding fraud and unlicensed services. Energy Diversification: Kazakhstan reported an 8.9% year-on-year drop in oil output to 53.2 million tons in the first seven months of 2026, while also rerouting crude after Caspian Pipeline Consortium intake limits, using routes via Aktau, China’s Atasu-Alashankou, Russia’s Atyrau-Samara, and considering Baku-Supsa and BTC. Digital Government Push: Kazakhstan is expanding eGov GPT to cover more services nationwide, with AI expected to match citizens to the right procedures and help complete applications online. Regional Trade & Industry: Freedom Holding said first-quarter net revenue rose 40% to $732.5m as its customer base hit 8.743 million. Tech & Security Watch: Microsoft detailed a ransomware group, DeadLock, moving its command-and-control to a public blockchain, making takedowns harder. Sports & Culture: Kyrgyzstan exported 746.7 tons of fish products in seven months, and its film “Kurmanjan Datka” screened in Argentina.

Oil Transit Shake-Up: Kazakhstan rerouted part of its crude exports after temporary CPC intake limits in July, sending volumes toward Aktau port and via Atasu–Alashankou and Atyrau–Samara, with options now under review including BTC, Caspian Sea shipments via Azerbaijan, and Baku–Supsa; Azerbaijan says it can raise intake to 2.2 million tons/year (KazMunayGas notes CPC still dominates large-scale transit). Black Sea Shipping Deal: Under U.S. pressure, Ukraine reportedly agreed to avoid targeting certain non-Russian tankers and CPC-linked infrastructure, aiming to restore flows after drone strikes disrupted loading. Finance & Trade: Kazakhstan and China signed a currency swap deal and agreed to a CBDC pilot (digital tenge/digital yuan), also discussing easier cross-border payments. Healthcare Expansion: Lilavati Hospital plans a Kazakhstan super-speciality OPD opening in September 2026 as its first international facility. Sports (Kazakhstan): Kazakh weightlifters set major records in Tashkent, while Elena Rybakina advanced at the National Bank Open in Toronto. Culture & Politics: Qurultay elections in Kazakhstan on Aug. 23 are framed as a new institutional turning point for inter-parliamentary dialogue.

Kazakhstan–China Finance: The National Bank says Astana and Beijing signed a three-year currency swap and agreed a pilot for using digital tenge and digital yuan in cross-border deals, with talks also aimed at easier payments. Oil Transit Watch: With CPC operations under pressure, Kazakhstan is weighing extra export routes via Azerbaijan, including Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan and Baku–Supsa, while Ukraine says it will coordinate safer passage for vessels linked to Kazakh oil under conditions. Healthcare Expansion: Lilavati Hospital plans a super-speciality OPD in Almaty from early September 2026, positioning it as a Central Asia gateway for oncology, liver, kidney/transplant, cardiology and more. AI & Education: Firebird opened a major AI data centre in Armenia and Kazakhstan is tied into the broader AI infrastructure push; meanwhile, Kazakh researchers are linking maternal mental health, autism care and digital models in a new study. Business & Logistics: CargoPoint opened an Almaty office to expand its Truck+Air China–Europe cargo network, cutting transit times by up to two days. Sports: Elena Rybakina reached the Canadian Open quarterfinals, setting up a Toronto last-eight match.

Tennis Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina fought back to beat Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 and reach the Canadian Open quarterfinals in Toronto, where she’ll face Naomi Osaka; Coco Gauff also advanced after a straight-sets win over Alina Korneeva. Rare Earths & Industry: Lindian Resources secured full control of Kazakhstan’s SARECO rare-earth processing plant at Stepnogorsk, buying the remaining 49% stake and targeting first processing in Q4 2026 as it builds a mine-to-market chain. Energy & Exports: Russia rejected any “freeze” in Ukraine, while the dispute and strikes around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal—key for Kazakh crude—remain a pressure point for regional oil flows. Environment: Kazakhstan recorded 47 forest fires over a week, all contained and extinguished. Weather Watch: Kazhydromet warns of thunderstorms, hail, high winds and elevated fire risk, with heat up to 35°C in Almaty and Astana. Sports Development: Kazakhstan’s Maksim Sazhnev reached the World Athletics U20 discus final after a record throw.